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But let me paint the most pessimistic version of that picture. I’ve heard from a few places, in particular from Facebook. Apple is going to do ad tracking transparency on the iPhone, it’s all rolled out. I’ve said no to every request to track me across multiple apps. That means Facebook’s first-party data is going to get more and more valuable. And so they’re going to want to keep you in that app more often, they’re already doing stuff in that direction.

They’re saying, “Here’s a podcast player.” “Here’s a set of creator tools.” We’re just going to hold you inside of this app so the ads are valuable here. And then their next move, and I know they’re currently partnered with you, is to have people transact more often in that app because they can’t track you as effectively elsewhere.

Off that app.

Off the app. Off Facebook apps, it can certainly track you across this set of apps they have. As Facebook wants to grow, and I’ll pick on Facebook, but it could be any of the companies that are doing this kind of marketing; TikTok. As they grow they’re going to just try to take more and more volume down into Shopify’s part of the stack. And so you can use Shopify here, but we’re Facebook, we can just subsidize a better deal, a lower cut of the transaction fee.

And that to me is where you see Apple made this move, ostensibly, to protect their users, they seem very ideological about it. But in some other way, they’ve actually just bolstered Facebook’s position and Facebook’s desire to hold people in their app and eventually transact in the app in a way that might cut directly your business and you had nothing to do with it.

Well, I don’t think in 2021, anyone is setting up a single channel of commerce. I’m serious. The data backs it up. No one really has a single channel indefinitely in 2021. You immediately want to have multi-channel right away. Even the idea of omni-channel now, it’s like calling it a color TV, you don’t call it a color TV. It’s just commerce. Commerce should be everywhere. But in terms of the ads, specifically, because I want to address it.

So near term, some of the changes, the Apple changes will reduce the efficacy of some ads, but it will further incentivize merchants to try other ways to connect with buyers on top of ads getting increasingly expensive. So longer term, merchants may actually benefit from further embedding commerce into every surface, like from retargeting, to using Shop, to using some random social media platform in some particular niche.

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